Questão 856482

Text II

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013 - Market Trends and Projections to 2018

The global oil market will undergo sweeping changes over the next five years. The 2013 MediumTerm Oil Market Report evaluates the impact of these changes on the global oil system by 2018 based

5 on all that we know today – current expectations of economic growth, existing or announced policies and regulations, commercially proven technologies, field decline rates, investment programmes (upstream, midstream and downstream), etc. The five-year

10 forecast period corresponds to the length of the typical investment cycle and as such is critical to policymakers and market participants

This Report shows, in detailed but concise terms, why the ongoing North American hydrocarbon

15 revolution is a ‘game changer’. The region’s expected contribution to supply growth, however impressive, is only part of the story: Crude quality, infrastructure requirements, current regulations, and the potential for replication elsewhere are bound to spark a chain

20 reaction that will leave few links in the global oil supply chain unaffected.

While North America is expected to lead mediumterm supply growth, the East-of- Suez region is in the lead on the demand side. Non-OECD oil demand, led

25 by Asia and the Middle East, looks set to overtake the OECD for the first time as early as 2Q13 and will widen its lead afterwards. Non-OECD economies are already home to over half global refining capacity. With that share only expected to grow by 2018, the

30 non-OECD region will be firmly entrenched as the world’s largest crude importer.

These and other changes are carefully laid out in this Report, which also examines recent and future changes in global oil storage, shifts in OPEC

35 production capacity and crude and product trade, and the consequences of the ongoing refinery construction boom in emerging markets and developing economies.

It is required reading for anyone engaged in policy or investment decision-making in the energy

40 sphere, and those more broadly interested in the oil market and the global economy.

Available at:<http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name-104933-en.html>. Retrieved on:20 June, 2014.Adapted .

Text I

World oil market prospects for the second half of the year

[...]

World oil demand in 2H14 is anticipated to increase by 1.2 mb/d over the same period last year to average 92.1 mb/d. OECD (Organisation for

5 Economic Co-operation and Development) demand is projected to decline by around 60 tb/d, despite positive growth in OECD Americas, mainly due to a general improvement in the US economy. OECD Europe and OECD Asia Pacific are expected to see

10 a lesser contraction than a year earlier. However, oil demand growth in OECD Asia Pacific will largely be impacted by any restart of nuclear power plants in Japan. Non-OECD countries are projected to lead oil demand growth this year and forecast to add 1.3 mb/d

15 in 2H14 compared to the same period a year ago. Nevertheless, risks to the forecast include the pace of economic growth in major economies in the OECD, China, India and Russia, as well as policy reforms in retail prices and substitution toward natural gas.

20 On the supply side, non-OPEC oil supply in the second half of the year is expected to increase by 1.2 mb/d over the same period last year to average around 55.9 mb/d, with the US being the main driver for growth, followed by Canada. Production

25 in Russia and Brazil is also expected to increase in 2H14. However, oil output from the UK and Mexico is projected to continue to decline. The forecast for non-OPEC supply growth for 2H14 is seen lower than in the first half of the year, but could increase given

30 forecasts for a mild hurricane season in the US Gulf. Less field maintenance in the North Sea and easing geopolitical tensions could also add further barrels in the coming two quarters. OPEC NGLs are also projected to continue to increase, adding 0.2 mb/d in

35 2H14 to stand at 5.9 mb/d.

Taking these developments into account, the supply-demand balance for 2H14 shows that the demand for OPEC crude in the second half of the year stands at around 30.3 mb/d, slightly higher than

40 in the first half of the year. This compares to OPEC production, according to secondary sources, of close to 30.0 mb/d in May. Global inventories are at sufficient levels, with OECD commercial stocks in days of forward cover at around 58 days in April. Moreover,

45 inventories in the US – the only OECD country with positive demand growth – stand at high levels. Non-OECD inventories are also on the rise, especially in China, which has been building Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) at a time when apparent demand is

50 weakening due to slowing economic activities. [...]

Available at:<http://opec.org/opec_web/satatic_files_project/media/download/publications/MOMR_June_2014.pdf>.Retrieved on:15 June 20144.Adapted.

Comparing the excerpt from Text I “Non-OECD countries are projected to lead oil demand growth this year and forecast to add 1.3 mb/d in 2H14 compared to the same period a year ago” (lines 13-15) to the excerpt from Text II “Non-OECD oil demand, led by Asia and the Middle East, looks set to overtake the OECD for the first time as early as 2Q13 and will widen its lead afterwards” (lines 24-27), one states that Text number