Questão 856480

Text II

Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013 - Market Trends and Projections to 2018

The global oil market will undergo sweeping changes over the next five years. The 2013 MediumTerm Oil Market Report evaluates the impact of these changes on the global oil system by 2018 based

5 on all that we know today – current expectations of economic growth, existing or announced policies and regulations, commercially proven technologies, field decline rates, investment programmes (upstream, midstream and downstream), etc. The five-year

10 forecast period corresponds to the length of the typical investment cycle and as such is critical to policymakers and market participants

This Report shows, in detailed but concise terms, why the ongoing North American hydrocarbon

15 revolution is a ‘game changer’. The region’s expected contribution to supply growth, however impressive, is only part of the story: Crude quality, infrastructure requirements, current regulations, and the potential for replication elsewhere are bound to spark a chain

20 reaction that will leave few links in the global oil supply chain unaffected.

While North America is expected to lead mediumterm supply growth, the East-of- Suez region is in the lead on the demand side. Non-OECD oil demand, led

25 by Asia and the Middle East, looks set to overtake the OECD for the first time as early as 2Q13 and will widen its lead afterwards. Non-OECD economies are already home to over half global refining capacity. With that share only expected to grow by 2018, the

30 non-OECD region will be firmly entrenched as the world’s largest crude importer.

These and other changes are carefully laid out in this Report, which also examines recent and future changes in global oil storage, shifts in OPEC

35 production capacity and crude and product trade, and the consequences of the ongoing refinery construction boom in emerging markets and developing economies.

It is required reading for anyone engaged in policy or investment decision-making in the energy

40 sphere, and those more broadly interested in the oil market and the global economy.

Available at:<http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name-104933-en.html>. Retrieved on:20 June, 2014.Adapted .

The expression from Text II upstream, midstream and downstream (lines 8-9) implies that investment programmes will be respectively directed to costs that involve