Questão 763162

Directions: Answer questions 33 to 40 according to TEXT I.

TEXT I

JOBS AT HIGH RISK

It is an invisible force that goes by many names.

Computerization. Automation. Artificial intelligence.

Technology. Innovation. And, everyone's favorite,

ROBOTS.

05 Whatever name you prefer, some form of it has

been stimulating progress and killing jobs — from tailors

to paralegals — for centuries. But this time is different:

nearly half of American jobs today could be automated in

"a decade or two". The question is: which half?

10 Another way of posing the same question is:

Where do machines work better than people? Tractors

are more powerful than farmers. Robotic arms are

stronger and more tireless than assembly-line workers.

But in the past 30 years, software and robots have

15 succeeded replacing a particular kind of occupation: the

average-wage, middle-skill, routine-heavy worker,

especially in manufacturing and office administration.

Indeed, it's projected that the next wave of

computer progress will continue to endanger human

20 work where it already has: manufacturing, administrative

support, retail, and transportation. Most remaining

factory jobs are "likely to diminish over the next

decades". Cashiers, counter clerks, and telemarketers

are similarly endangered. On the other hand, health care

25 workers, people responsible for our safety, and

management positions are the least likely to be

automated.

The next big thing

30 We might be on the edge of an innovating

moment in robotics and artificial intelligence. Although

the past 30 years have reduced the middle, high- and

low-skill jobs have actually increased, as if protected

from the invading armies of robots by their own moats.

35 Higher-skill workers have been protected by a kind of

social-intelligence moat. Computers are historically good

at executing routines, but they're bad at finding patterns,

communicating with people, and making decisions,

which is what managers are paid to do. This is why

40 some people think managers are, for the moment, one of

the largest categories immune to the fast wave of AI.

Meanwhile, lower-skill workers have been

protected by the Moravec moat. Hans Moravec was a

futurist who pointed out that machine technology copied

45 a savant infant: Machines could do long math equations

instantly and beat anybody in chess, but they can't

answer a simple question or walk up a flight of stairs. As

a result, not skilled work done by people without much

education (like home health care workers, or fast-food

50 attendants) have been saved, too.

The human half

In the 19th century, new manufacturing

technology replaced what was then skilled labor. In the

55 second half of the 20th century, however, software

technology took the place of median-salaried office work.

The first wave showed that machines are better at

assembling things. The second showed that machines

are better at organizing things. Now data analytics and

60 self-driving cars suggest they might be better at pattern-

recognition and driving. So what are we better at?

The safest industries and jobs are dominated by

managers, health-care workers, and a super-category

that includes education, media, and community service.

65 One conclusion to draw from this is that humans are,

and will always be, superior at working with, and caring

for other humans. In this light, automation doesn't make

the world worse. Far from it: it creates new opportunities

for human creativity.

70 But robots are already creeping into diagnostics

and surgeries. Schools are already experimenting with

software that replaces teaching hours. The fact that

some industries have been safe from automation for the

last three decades doesn't guarantee that they'll be safe

75 for the next one.

It would be anxious enough if we knew exactly

which jobs are next in line for automation. The truth is

scarier. We don't really have a clue.

(Adapted from http://www.businessinsider.com/robots-overtaking-

american-jobs-2014-1)

Glossary:

savant infant – a child with great knowledge and ability

to assemble – to make something by joining separate parts

to creep – to move slowly, quietly and carefully

In the sentence “for the last three decades” (lines 73 and 74), the underlined item was used in the same way as in